Rotoprofessor

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This is something new we’re going to try out here on the site, so please let me know what you think.  Before I give my thoughts, I want to give everyone else here a chance to voice their opinion, then I’ll chime in later this evening. 

Over the past few days I’ve posted Quick Hits on Matt Holliday (click here to view) and Carlos Beltran (click here to view).  The projections were relatively close, with Holliday having a sizable lead in batting average, but Beltran having the edge in the other 4 scoring categories.  So, here’s the question, who would you rather have on your fantasy roster?

Let’s hear you Sound-Off!

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Looking for a possible power option late in your draft?  I’m sure that’s a situation many of us are going to find ourselves in.  I know from experience, sitting there at the tail end of my draft just trying to find a name who can provide some power after I didn’t quite get enough in the early rounds.  Well, here are 5 names that are likely to be had after the 18th round who have the potential to significantly help your team in power:

Travis Hafner - Cleveland Indians
He is just 2 seasons removed from a 42 HR campaign, and I find it extremely hard to believe that at 31-years old (he turns 32 in June), he has just completely lost that type of potential.  Problems with his shoulder led to his demise last season, limiting him to 198 AB with 5 HR and hitting .197.  This is a player with a career .284 average and was between 24-42 HR the previous four seasons.

We aren’t talking about a guy who’s going to hit .310 with 40 HR, 110 RBI and 100 R, like he once was.  Would you complain with a late round pick who goes .275 with 28 HR, 85 RBI and 85 R though?

If he’s healthy, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t be that type of player.  No one would project him out to that level, but the upside is there.  There’s that disclaimer to consider, which is why he should be nothing more then a late round flyer in all formats.  That way, if he fails, he doesn’t hurt your team in the least, but if he rebounds it is huge dividends for all. Read the rest of this entry »

A few more moves from tonight that I want to mention from tonight:

• Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com (click here for the article) is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have “reached an agreement in principle with free agent Milton Bradley” for 3 years and $30 million.  According to Carrie Muskat of mlb.com (click here for the article), Bradley could undergo his physical on Thursday or Friday, Considering the contract that Pat Burrell agreed to earlier today, I think the dollar amount may be a little high.  There’s no doubting Bradley’s talent, hitting .321 with 22 HR, 77 RBI and 78 R over 414 AB last season, but the majority of that came as a DH.  Bradley’s inability to stay healthy has got to be seen as a huge negative, having topped 400 AB only twice and 500 just once during his 9 year career.  His 22 HR was a career high, as was his RBI and R.  It’ll be interested to see how he fairs now having to play the OF on a daily basis.  If he can stay healthy he’s a great signing and a great pick for fantasy owners, but that’s a gamble I’m not really ready to make.  I would not use an early round pick on him and if you do select him later on, make sure you have a quality bench option as a replacement.  You likely are going to need it.
• The Cardinals have signed Royce Ring, according to The St. Louis Post-Dispatch (click here for the article).  He’ll compete for a role as a lefty out of the bullpen, but even if he earns a spot, he won’t have value for fantasy owners.

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

It looks like the Rays have gotten their DH.  According to Buster Olney of espn.com (click here for the article)m the Rays have reached an agreement with Pat Burrell on a 2-year, $16 million contract.

There’s no doubting how powerful Burrell’s bat is, and moving out of Citizen’s Bank Ballpark should not have a negative impact on his numbers, given his surprising spit last season.  Of his 33 HR, only 12 came at home with 21 on the road.  In 2007, he hit 16 HR at home and 14 HR on the road.

Therefore, Burrell’s projection really isn’t going to change at all from this signing.  I will feature him in a Quick Hit in a few days, but basically he is what he is, a player who is going to hit .250-.260 with 27-32 HR.  That certainly gives him value, especially since he’s going to continue to be playing in a very strong line-up.  He’s not a top option, but he is worth using for his power.

Last season, Zack Greinke entered with questions more about his mental stability then about his on-field talent.  He proved his doubters wrong by putting together a tremendous season, even for the lowly Kansas City Royals.  Let’s take a look at the numbers he posted:

13 Wins
202.1 Innings
3.47 ERA
1.28 WHIP
183 Strikeouts (8.14 K/9)
56 Walks (2.49 BB/9)
.318 BABIP

That comes a year after he was transitioned back to the rotation, after opening the season coming out of the bullpen.  In 2007 he made 14 starts, going 3-6 with a 3.60 ERA and 51 K in 68.2 IP while a starter, showing that it was no fluke the way he produced last season.  He really is that good of a pitcher, and if he was pitching for a team that was competitive he’d be getting a lot more attention. Read the rest of this entry »

Unlike with the First Baseman, after the Top 10 Second Baseman or so, you can almost just throw a blanket over the rest of the group and hope that someone emerges.  There are a few sleepers I like, and those are the guys that ended up getting the nod on this list for spots 17-20.  It wouldn’t be very surprising to see one or two of the guys that went unlisted outperforming them, however.  That means that you are going to want to monitor the waiver wire if you miss out on one of the better choices.

With that said, let’s take a look at how the rankings ended up going:

1. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers
2. Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies
3. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds
4. Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox
5. Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles
6. Dan Uggla - Florida Marlins
7. Alexei Ramirez - Chicago White Sox
8. Robinson Cano - New York Yankees
9. Jose Lopez - Seattle Mariners
10. Mark DeRosa - Cleveland Indians Read the rest of this entry »

It would seem unlikely that a 19-year old Cuban defector could push Josh Fields and Wilson Betemit to the bench, claiming the 3B job for himself, but with the Chicago White Sox never say never.  They tend to be a little unconventional, and after signing Dayan Viciedo to a 4-year, $11 million contract (including a $4 million signing bonus), anything is really possible.

They were in a similar situation with Alexei Ramirez at this time last season, though he was significantly older when he joined the club (27-years old).  It took Ramirez a little bit of time to settle in, as well as find a position, but at this point we all know how he emerged down the stretch and became one of the Top 10 2B for fantasy owners.

Is a similar fate in store for Viciedo?  Given his age, I could see the White Sox being a bit more cautious with him.  Still, he projects to hit for a lot of power, succeeding at such a young age in the Cuban League.  At 16-years old he hit 14 HR and hit a total of 32 HR over 233 games the past three seasons.  I know that doesn’t seem like much, but keep in mind that he’s playing against players significantly older then he, including those who play for the countries national team. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Beltran is player who threatens to reach the 30/30 plateau season in and season out, though he’s only gotten there once.  Since he signed with the Mets, it’s been a fairly mixed bag with Beltran not running at close to the same pace that he had back in his earlier years, topping out at 25 last season.  Maybe it’s because the Mets have been using him in the clean-up slot, as opposed to hitting #2 as he did in his early days, so given the construction of the Mets line-up that may not change so quickly.  Injuries to his legs has also played a role during his tenure with the team.

Before we get into too many details, let’s take a look at the numbers he posted in 2008:

606 At Bats
.284 Batting Average (172 Hits)
27 Home Runs
112 RBI
116 Runs
25 Stolen Bases
.376 On Base Percentage
.500 Slugging Percentage
.300 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Now, we’ve already discussed the SB numbers and like I said, it just isn’t going to change.  The Mets need him in the middle of the order, where he will get plenty of opportunities to both drive in and score runs, as opposed to setting the table.  It would appear that 25 SB is the upper limit, and he’s more likely to regress back down to closer to 20 then take the next step forward. Read the rest of this entry »

According to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (click here for the article), Tony LaRussa would consider using Chris Carpenter as the Cardinals closer “if that’s best for Carpenter”.  This comes after Brian Fuentes, who had been linked to the team as a potential free agent distination, ultimately decided to sign with the Los Angels Angels.

It had been thought that Chris Perez or Jason Motte could step up and fill the role, but LaRussa was quoted as saying “They’re still a ways away from being a complete answer”.  He went on to say that “The way they can get there is to be put in a situation where they can learn, they can grow, without having the stress of it being all up to them to get that last out, and nothing to protect them”.

Perez had 7 saves last season while posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and has been classified as a potential closer of the future.  Jason Motte pitched just 11 innings, posting a miniscule ERA of 0.82 and WHIP of 0.73 while picking up 1 save.

At this point, it would appear that the Cardinals aren’t going to leaning on either of the kids in 2009, though who knows for sure.  I will continue to monitor the situation and bring you any news that becomes available, but at this point I’d recommend avoiding all three players on draft day.  It looks like the Cardinals will use some type of mix-and-match system, meaning that none of them will be able to become an elite option.

Obviously, that can change as we move closer to draft day, however.

Given their numbers from 2008, it would appear like a no-brainer.  Troy Tulowitzki suffered the proverbial sophomore slump.  He was on the DL not once, but twice, with a torn quadriceps and a cut on his hand, which completely sabotaged his first half.  He had just 151 AB, hitting .166 with 3 HR.  He rebounded in the second half, hitting .327 with 5 HR, but even that was not close to his rookie campaign and the expectations for him heading into the season.

J.J. Hardy was no rookie, but he too looked like a shell of himself over the season’s first three months, hitting just 6 HR, 4 of which came in June.  He then became one of the hottest hitters in the game, slugging 9 HR in July and another 9 between August & September, ending the season with 24 HR, second among SS behind only Hanley Ramirez.

With both players finishing strong in 2008, the real question is which would you rather own heading into 2009?

There’s no doubting Hardy’s power, as he’s hit 50 over the past two seasons and has emerged as one of the top slugging SS in the game.  I know the decrease in FB rate is a bit concerning (36.1% in ‘08 vs. 41.7% in ‘07), but an increased in HR/FB allowed him to maintain his HR number, as did his hot second half.  I would suspect that he’d fall somewhere in the middle in both numbers, so finishing the year with around 25 HR again would not be surprising. Read the rest of this entry »